Monday, May 30, 2011

NBA Finals Prediction

This year’s NBA finals provide basketball fans with a rematch of the 2006 finals where Dwayne Wade and the Heat prevailed to win the championship over Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks. Although both rosters look dramatically different Wade and Nowitzki remain the two constant variables to each team’s success.

                The show time Miami Heat was assembled by Hall of Famer Pat Riley. He lured Chris Bosh and superstar Lebron James to join Wade in their attempt to become the great power of the next decade. James constant comparison to Michael Jordan has made James second appearance in the finals even more compelling. Many anti-LeBron fans are quick to point out his short comings in playoff games most notably last year against the Celtics, but he has quieted those critiques so far with his spectacular late games performances as he turns himself into the closer for the Heat. The championship energy the Heat play with on defense has made the Heat take their next step and many players credit this to training camp before the season. That defense stifled both the Celtics and Bulls in late game situations and made it nearly impossible for either team to convert in a late game situation.

                The Mavericks have stayed a consistent power in the Western Conference for the past decade, but have also had playoff short comings most notably in 2006 when they led the Heat by two games and then lost four straight. Nowitzki like James has altered his playoff perception this year by providing Maverick fans with legendary performances to vault the Mavericks nearly uncontested into the NBA finals. The role players around Nowitzki make it nearly impossible to double team him because they are all knock down shooters. If Jason Terry, J.J. Barea, Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd receive open looks at the basket they are almost certain to knock them down and this will give the Heat many problems. The biggest difference on the Mavericks is not a shooter or Nowitzki’s play; it is the play of defensive minded Tyson Chandler. His presence and energy has changed the perception of the Mavericks from being a soft team to a hardnosed playoff basketball team that had the tenacity to knock the defending champs out in four games.

                The superstar names, the late game play of James and the overall hype of the Miami Heat have made them the early favorites to defeat the Mavericks in the finals. All of these variables have the average fan believe that the Heat will win as well, but what they fail to see is that the Mavericks have played the best basketball in the playoffs and are the hungrier team. The Heat will have many more chances over the next decade to win multiple championships, but this may be the final chance for this group of Mavericks. This series is the defining moment of Nowitzski’s career and his chance to bury the demons that have haunted him since 2006. I predict the Mavericks will win the series in 6 games because of the drive of Nowitzki and how everyone else on the Mavericks does not want to let him down. All I can say is I cannot wait for the ceremony with Mark Cuban and David Stern.

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